World oil demand is expected to surpass the 100 million barrels per day (bpd) mark in the second half of 2022, thanks to solid economic growth and expectations of continued success in containing the pandemic, OPEC said on Thursday.
Global economic growth is set to jump by 5.5 percent this year and another 4.1 percent next year, the cartel said in its closely-watched Monthly Oil Market Report released on Thursday.
OPEC sees global oil demand growing by 6 million bpd this year, unchanged from last month’s assessment. Total oil demand is projected to average 96.6 million bpd in 2021.
Next year, global oil demand will rise by a further 3.3 million bpd over 2021 to average 99.86 million bpd, roughly returning to the average demand of 2019, before the pandemic. The 100-million-bpd mark will be exceeded in the second half of 2022, OPEC said.
Oil demand in developed economies is set to rise by 1.5 million bpd in 2022 over 2021, with U.S. oil demand leading the increase, although American oil demand will be marginally below 2019 levels, mainly due to lagging transportation fuel demand. OECD Europe and Asia Pacific will also grow, but remain below 2019 levels.
Led by China and India, oil demand in developing economies is projected to increase by 1.8 million bpd in 2022 and exceed pre-pandemic levels. This growth will be supported by the recovery in transportation fuels and firm industrial fuels demand, including petrochemical feedstocks. In terms of fuels, gasoline and diesel are expected to lead oil demand growth in 2022, OPEC said.
Jet fuel will continue to recover, thanks to domestic and international air travel, but business travel is expected to lag.
OPEC flagged a number of uncertainties in the 2022 outlook, including the pandemic-related impact on transportation fuels and acceleration of inflation in case of strong growth.