OPEC+ once again extended its oil production cuts this month. The decision was anything but unexpected and, unlike previous production policy announcements, it had the desired effect on prices. However, it could only work for so long. Soon, OPEC will need to make a decision.
It has now been just over a year since the Federal Government of Iraq imposed an embargo on oil exports from the country’s semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan.
Destroying all financial independence for the region, which is reliant on ongoing independent oil supplies, is one of the tools Baghdad has to erode Erbil’s autonomy.
The latest tactic of blaming international oil companies for the embargo still being in place is just another element.
– Canadian crude will start flowing to China directly (up until now it has only been exported from the US Gulf Coast) as the impending launch of the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline saw the first deals being made.
Opec has once again kept unchanged its bullish forecast for oil demand growth this year, even while others including Saudi state-controlled Aramco continue to see much lower levels of growth.
Last week saw China officially announce its economic growth target for 2024 of “around 5 percent”.
There are signs that China’s trade globally is beginning to markedly trend up again.
Fiscal expansion and increased trade is likely to feature increased demand for oil from China, as opposed to the type of growth that has dominated 2023
Oil prices closed 1% lower on Friday and fell even more for the week as markets remained wary of soft Chinese demand even as producer group OPEC+ extended supply cuts.
Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as markets weighed new economic data from China against increasing supply from the Western Hemisphere. Brent crude futures settled flat at $82.96 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures ended 20 cents lower at $78.93.
A push to replenish depleted oil stocks notably in China, the United States and Europe could buoy demand and prices in coming months, analysts and traders said, as tensions in the Middle East threaten key shipping lanes.
Oil prices fell in early Asian trade on Monday after Israel said it had “concluded” a series of strikes in southern Gaza, slightly easing concerns about supply from the Middle East.
il prices fell on Wednesday, pressured by lacklustre economic activity in leading crude importer China, but a first monthly gain since September remained in sight as flaring tensions in the Middle East heightened supply concerns.