Crude oil physical markets in Europe and Africa have weakened in response to peak refinery maintenance and extra supply from the United States and Saudi Arabia, dampening the impact of Red Sea shipping delays, according to traders, flows data and analysts.
Crude oil inventories at Cushing have dropped to their lowest level for this time of year in over a decade.
The depleting stocks at Cushing and the bearish sentiment on the oil market, especially the recent more negative positioning in WTI Crude, could lead to high prices in the near term.
In the three weeks to January 19, inventories at Cushing fell by more than 5 million barrels.
Standard Chartered: sentiment in the oil and commodity markets closely mirrors the beginning of 2023.
Oil traders fear that market surpluses will be larger in the current year than they were last year.
Traders expect the U.S. and Europe, not China, to be the main sources of demand weakness this time around.
Norwegian oil and gas companies will drill more exploration wells this year as the country seeks to maintain its position as a key supplier to Europe.
Azerbaijan plans to increase its gas exports from 8 billion cubic meters in 2021 to 20 billion cubic meters by 2027.
This expansion requires increased gas production and capacity enhancement of the Southern Gas Corridor pipelines.
Challenges include securing purchase agreements with European buyers and competing with flexible LNG exports.
U.S. oil production reached a record 13.2 million barrels per day, significantly increasing exports, especially to Europe and Asia.
End-of-year tax considerations are prompting traders to export more oil to reduce taxable inventory, with exports expected to average 5 million barrels per day.
The integration of WTI Midland in the Brent basket and the European embargo on Russian oil have contributed to the growing popularity of U.S. crude in global markets.
Record temperatures in Europe and North America extended the gas storage refill season, leading to high inventories.
Natural gas demand decreased due to warmer weather, an industrial slowdown in Europe, and record U.S. production and LNG exports.
Futures and options market winter premiums have diminished, contributing to a drop in Europe’s natural gas prices and bearish trends in the U.S. and Asian markets.
Europe has intensified efforts this year to protect its clean energy manufacturing industries and reduce dependence on China for its renewable energy rollout.
Europe’s switch from pipeline gas to LNG is reshaping the global LNG market, putting a permanent floor under prices.
Concerned about energy security, Europe and China are in an intensifying competition to sign long-term supply deals with U.S. LNG developers and exporters.